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A computer monitor displaying economic charts and data projections, sitting on a desk with papers and a coffee mug.

Compte rendu conjoncturel – États-Unis et indicateurs clés (2026) 1. Marché du travail et salaires (projections jusqu’en 2040) D’après les données sur les salaires horaires : Dans le secteur privé (production et superviseurs) : le rythme de croissance annuelle des salaires est projeté en baisse continue, passant de 5,2 % en 2021 à 0,2 % en 2043. Pour l’ensemble du secteur privé : la tendance est similaire, avec une baisse de 5,8 % en 2022 à 0,0 % en 2043. Interprétation : Ces projections suggèrent un ralentissement structurel de la croissance des rémunérations, possiblement lié à un marché du travail qui se détend, à des gains de productivité moindres ou à une moindre pression inflationniste sur les salaires. 2. Croissance du PIB réel – Prévisions des Fed (Atlanta et New York) a) Atlanta Fed – GDPNow (3ᵉ trimestre 2026) Prévision GDPNow au 30 août 2026 : environ 2,2 % (en rythme annualisé). Contributions positives : consommation des ménages (PCE) et dépenses publiques. Contributions négatives : investissement résidentiel, variations de stocks, exportations nettes. La prévision est restée stable autour de 2 % tout au long du mois d’août. b) New York Fed – Staff Nowcast (au 4 septembre 2026) Nowcast : +2,26 % (annualisé). Intervalle de probabilité à 50 % : entre 1,14 % et 3,38 %. La prévision est en légère hausse par rapport au 28 août (2,22 %). Conclusion : Les deux modèles de la Fed convergent vers une croissance modérée au 3ᵉ trimestre 2026, autour de 2,2-2,3 %, soutenue Mehr sehen

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